Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest – October 8th, 2024

Interfor’s Weekly Digest | Global Security and Policy Insights – October 8th, 2024

Global Security Matters

Israel  – Gaza – Iran – Hezbollah

• There is still broad speculation about Israel’s expected response to Iran’s October 1st missile attack. Several options have been discussed, including the targeting of military and intelligence sites, oil infrastructure, and/or Iran’s nuclear program. The scale and timing of Israel’s response remain unclear. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is scheduled to travel to Washington on Wednesday to discuss potential options, indicating that Israel is working to coordinate its response with the US. Still, it remains possible that Netanyahu will opt to make a first move without US support. 
  
  • Reporting has as of now focused around two options: an Israeli attack on Iranian oil infrastructure or a strike targeting key military or intelligence sites in Iran. Israel appears to have heeded US and international pressure – following a spike in oil futures – in at least publicly signaling less interest in the oil infrastructure option. More recent rumors revolve around Iranian military and intelligence sites. 
    
    • Though few details have emerged, as of now we assess this kind of mid-level targeting – below the nuclear program but above a symbolic demonstration of Israeli capabilities – to be most likely. 
  • However, the biggest question at the moment is: how much influence can the Biden administration successfully exert over Israel’s decision making on this point? At various points over the last year Israel has taken aggressive action without warning the US. While up until now, Israel has been likelier to coordinate with the US when Iran is at issue, trust between Biden and Netanyahu has frayed, and many in Washington are concerned that Netanyahu could go against Biden’s wishes and strike Iran’s nuclear program. 
• If Israel did go ahead and hit Iran’s nuclear sites without US permission, the US could be forced to support Israel in the aftermath nonetheless. US forces are deployed throughout the region and therefore vulnerable to Iranian reprisals, and President Biden would be in a politically complicated situation – with the election on the horizon – if he appeared to disapprove of, rather than support, Israeli action against a US adversary(such a scenario would create a major opportunity for the Trump campaign to criticize Democratic foreign policy).

• On the anniversary of Hamas’ October 7th attack on Israel, fighting rages on multiple fronts. Hamas fired projectiles toward southern and central Israel on Monday, while Hezbollah did the same from the north, targeting northern communities including the large city of Haifa. Simultaneously, the IDF continues to bombard southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut, attempting to destroy Hezbollah infrastructure and military supplies, and initiated a new round of aerial bombardment in northern Gaza, killing at least 19 individuals on Sunday. Today, Israeli officials announced a fourth division would be deployed into Lebanon, though the IDF maintains it is conducting“limited, localized, and targeted raids.” 

• With military operations ongoing on multiple fronts, talk of a ceasefire has grown increasingly pessimistic. Yahya Sinwar, after several weeks off the grid, has reportedly restored contact with Qatari mediators. US officials believe Sinwar has little interest in a ceasefire/hostage deal at this point and may be hoping that Israel’s expanding confrontation with Iran will take pressure off of Hamas long enough for him to rebuild the group’s capabilities. 

• The Israeli military announced on Tuesday that it has killed Suhail Husseini, a senior commander of Hezbollah, in a strike on Beirut. Husseini was reportedly responsible for the logistics, budgeting, and management of the militant group, as well as overseeing the transfer of advanced weapons from Iran. This action follows a series of Israeli strikes that have successfully targeted Hezbollah’s leadership, including its long-time leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

International Affairs

• Ukraine’s military has successfully struck a significant oil terminal in Feodosia, Crimea, which has been crucial for supplying fuel to Russian forces. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that this strike aims to weaken Russia’s military and economic capabilities. Russian authorities confirmed a fire at the terminal but did not specify its cause. Ukraine has been intensifying its attacks on strategic rear areas, utilizing long-range drones to target oil depots and armories, particularly as Russian operations continue in the eastern Donetsk region. Russia retaliated by launching missile strikes and drone attacks on Ukraine, with debris causing minor damage in Kyiv but no reported injuries. 

• The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), a separatist militant organization in Pakistan, has claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing that occurred outside Karachi’s main airport. The attack targeted a convoy of Chinese employees, resulting in the deaths of two individuals and injuries to eight others. Provincial Home Minister Zia Ul Hassan noted that the assault appeared to be deliberately aimed at foreign nationals, particularly Chinese workers involved in projects under China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The BLA stated that the bombing specifically targeted Chinese engineers and investors. This group has a documented history of attacking Chinese interests in Pakistan, fueled by grievances over Beijing’s role in the region’s exploitation.

• North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has reaffirmed his readiness to utilize nuclear weapons in potential confrontations with South Korea and the United States, blaming both countries for escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula. During a recent address at the Kim Jong Un University of National Defense, he declared that North Korea would “without hesitation” deploy all military capabilities, including nuclear weapons, if it perceives a threat from these nations. Kim’s comments occur against a backdrop of intensified military collaboration between South Korea and the U.S., particularly following new deterrence guidelines aimed at integrating South Korean conventional forces with US nuclear capabilities.

Cyber News

• Pro-Ukrainian hackers have taken responsibility for a cyberattack on the Russian state media company VGTRK, which occurred on October 7, coinciding with President Vladimir Putin’s birthday. VGTRK described the attack as”unprecedented,” but reported no significant damage, stating that operations resumed without disruption to broadcasts. However, Gazeta.ru reported that the hackers had wiped all data from the company’s servers, including backups. The attack is attributed to the hacker group Sudo rm-RF, and the Russian government has launched an investigation, characterizing the incident as part of a broader anti-Russian campaign by the West. 

Protests

• Mass anti-Israel protests took place across the US yesterday, on the anniversary of the October 7th Hamas massacre of nearly 1200 and kidnapping of approximately 250 more. Protestors chanted slogans supporting the “Intifada” on campuses including Columbia, Harvard, University of Pennsylvania, and more, and in large cities across the US, sparking renewed debate regarding the rhetoric used by protestors.

Resources

• US Department of State Travel Advisories
• CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters.
• Our latest blog posts look at what it takes to secure the United Nations General Assembly in NYC.