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Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest - February 4, 2025

Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest – February 4, 2025

Interfor’s Weekly Digest | Global Security and Policy Insights – February 4, 2025 

Global Security Matters

Middle East

  • Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived in Washington on Sunday, where he is meeting with President Trump, Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, and others. They are expected to discuss Phase 2 of the ceasefire with Hamas, which will focus on an end to the war and the release of the remaining living hostages. Over the past three weeks, there has been speculation as to whether Netanyahu will remain committed to the deal (as it could cost him his coalition). However, Witkoff seems to have demonstrated President Trump’s preference for the continuation of the deal. 
    • President Trump has several reasons to push forward the ceasefire. First, he has already claimed credit for the relative success of Phase 1 (thus far). Second, and perhaps more important to Washington, Trump likely wants Netanyahu’s attention focused elsewhere: on the expansion of the Abraham Accords. We expect Trump to dangle Israeli-Saudi normalization, specifically, as an incentive for Netanyahu to heed Trump’s preferences on Gaza, Iran, and any other areas of potential disagreement.
  • The IDF has undertaken new action in the West Bank to counter growing support for or operations by Hamas and other militant/terror groups. IDF operations have focused significantly in Jenin, where the IDF has drawn criticism for destruction of buildings and displacement of residents. Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that IDF troops will remain in Jenin indefinitely. The IDF may be partially repurposing its playbook from northern Gaza, dividing Jenin into segments that make it more maneuverable for IDF troops and less densely populated.
    • However, their move into Jenin has directly undermined the Palestinian Authority, the only established alternative to Hamas. The PA has been working to undermine support for Hamas in the West Bank for the last month, to little success due to a perception that they are collaborating with Israel. With this perception, the PA, already widely disliked, will have little chance of gaining a mandate to govern post-war Palestinian society despite calls by many regional leaders and figures in the US for their leadership.

International Affairs

  • On February 2, Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa arrived in Saudi Arabia for his first official foreign visit since the ousting of Bashar al-Assad. Al-Sharaa met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to discuss bilateral relations, regional stability, and potential economic cooperation. The meeting signals Saudi Arabia’s willingness to engage with Syria’s new leadership and could pave the way for further Arab League involvement in Syria’s reconstruction efforts. 
    • Al-Sharaa is expected to discuss a joint defense pact with Turkey today. Turkey was Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS), al-Sharaa’s militant group, primary state backer in the lead-up to Assad’s fall and is expected to exert significant influence in the new Syria. Turkey’s role in Syria is of critical concern to the US, given Turkey’s demonstrated interest in attacking Syria’s Kurds, who were the US’s chosen partner in the Syrian civil war. Moreover, Turkey is unlikely to press Al-Sharaa to prioritize secular and democratic values, provided the new Syrian leader agrees to serve Turkey’s interests.
  • The Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC), a rebel coalition in the Democratic Republic of Congo, called for a ceasefire late last week after clashes with the government killed hundreds. The Congolese army has yet to issue a formal response to the proposal, particularly due to concerns that a truce will not protect against further bloodshed. To date, at least 900 have been killed in the Goma province and an additional 2800 injured. 
  • El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele offered to receive deportees from the US, regardless of their nationality, on Monday. This would include incarcerated US citizens, members of gangs such as MS-13 and Tren de Aragua, and other illegal immigrants who are deemed “dangerous.” This would essentially outsource a portion of the US detention system to El Salvador, for a price. Beyond cash, it is unclear what, if anything, Bukele would ask for in return. President Trump has not officially issued a response. 
  • Germany will hold a snap election on February 23 after Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition collapsed late last year. Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats have lost support in recent years, leaving room for the conservative Alternative for Germany (AfD) to fill the gap. Key issues in the upcoming election will be German involvement in the Ukraine war, migration, climate, and relations with President Trump. 

United States 

  • President Trump momentarily halted his efforts to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico. In exchange for the month-long delay, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to send 10,000 national guardsmen to the US-Mexico border to help prevent drug, human, and weapons trafficking. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, and others are expected to begin negotiations with a Mexican delegation over the future of trade between the US and Mexico in the near future. 

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