Global Security and Policy Insights- April 22, 2025
| Middle East → The US and Iran concluded a second round of nuclear talks on Saturday, mediated by Oman. Representatives of both governments indicated that the talks had been a positive step forward and will resume on Saturday. Additionally, technical nuclear experts will begin their first officials talks in Oman on Wednesday. In contrast to earlier statements by President Trump, the US appears to be focusing on reduced enrichment and monitoring of Iran’s nuclear program rather than its dismantling. This kind of deal would closely mirror Obama’s JCPOA, which President Trump withdrew from during his first term. Chatter is building around the possibility that the Iranians will push for more than just sanctions relief in exchange for compromising on their nuclear program. Iranian officials say clear economic benefits should be on the table, also hinting the US investment in key industries should be a discussion point. We remain far away from a deal, however, and the Trump team will likely need to see concessions beyond the 3.67% enrichment limit – identical to the JCPOA ask – in order to provide additional carrots in exchange. → Ronen Bar, former Chief of Israel’s Shin Bet, accused Prime Minister Netanyahu of making “improper” demands of him to spy on Israeli citizens leading anti-government protests. These and other allegations appeared in a public affidavit as part of the Supreme Court case on the lawfulness of his dismissal. Bar also accused Netanyahu of prioritizing personal loyalty over duty to the people of Israel. Netanyahu’s office has rejected the allegations. |
| International Affairs → On Monday, Vladimir Putin proposed bilateral peace talks with Ukraine for the first time since 2022. Ukraine is already scheduled to participate in talks with the US and European countries on Wednesday. Any direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine would likely focus initially on an end to striking civilian targets. → Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) declared its own rebel government on Tuesday, two years into the civil war. Their leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dogalo, calimed that the RSF would pursue a government of “peace and unity,” despite outstanding allegations of war crimes against the RSF and its leadership. The Sudanese army still controls much of the country, though the RSF has steadily gained control of a large swath of territory since the civil war began. → On Monday, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro demanded that El Salvador release detained Venezuelans who were deported from the US. El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele has proposed a prisoner exchange, in which El Salvador would repatriate detained Venezuelans in exchange for an equal amount of political prisoners held by Venezuela. Bukele also claims that the majority of deportees held in El Salvador are members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, though given that evidence reports are limited, some deportees may not be linked to organized crime. → Chinese Premier Li Qiang reportedly sent a letter to Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba requesting that the two countries organize a coordinated response to US tariffs. Neither foreign ministry has officially commented on whether they will strike an agreement, though Beijing has warned its neighbors against making a deal with the US that would disadvantage China. → In Myanmar, the military reached a temporary ceasefire with the rebels in an effort to facilitate humanitarian aid delivery following the 7.7 magnitude earthquake in March. The earthquake killed nearly 4,000 people and flattened infrastructure near Myanmar’s Mandalay city. |
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