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Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest - January 28, 2025

Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest – January 28, 2025

Interfor’s Weekly Digest | Global Security and Policy Insights – January 28, 2025

Global Security Matters

Middle East

  • On Monday, the IDF opened a portion of the Netzarim Corridor in Gaza, enabling thousands of Palestinians to begin returning to the north. The deal was negotiated after Hamas failed to release the remaining two female civilian hostages, in accordance with the hostage release deal, due to at least one of them being held by Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). PIJ is now scheduled to release this hostage, Arbel Yehud, on Thursday. The Netzarim Corridor will still have an IDF presence as well as armed US personnel from a private security company to ensure weapons and known terrorists are not traveling north.
    • With the return of thousands of civilians to northern Gaza, the IDF loses much of the strategic flexibility it established via the evacuation of civilians to the south. If Netanyahu wants to reinitiate military action after Phase 1 of the ceasefire, he will face renewed international backlash against operating in north Gaza amid a restored civilian population.
    • The Israeli public remains extremely sensitive to the fate of the hostages. Should fewer than expected of those released in Phase 1 come back alive, it may inflame Israelis’ willingness to resume hostilities. Further, if the concessions Israel made in the deal (i.e. opening the Netzarim Corridor, scaling back IDF presence, etc.) enable Hamas to claim a victory and they refuse to participate in good faith negotiations to release the remaining 66 hostages, Israelis may lose their patience for peace talks.
  • Over the weekend, President Trump reportedly told King Abdullah of Jordan and President al-Sisi of Egypt that they should accept Palestinian refugees from Gaza. Historically, both Egypt and Jordan have been reluctant to accept Gazans into their countries, fearing destabilization of their own populations. As a result, representatives from both governments have issued statements of opposition to this proposal, claiming that the resettlement of Gazans in the wider region would increase instability rather than bring peace. Moreover, this plan has raised concerns among Palestinians and the international community of the possibility of ethnic cleansing and Israeli resettlement of Gaza.
  • Over the weekend, protests began in Lebanon among civilians wanting to return to their villages in the south, which has been under IDF control since the implementation of the ceasefire in November. Lebanon, Israel, and international mediators have agreed to extend the ceasefire to mid-February, leaving the IDF in over 12 Lebanese villages in the interim. Lebanese civilian protestors attempted to return to their homes, and at least 24 were killed by IDF fire, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry.

International Affairs

  • The EU and NATO decided to heed Denmark’s request to “refrain from reacting” to Donald Trump’s desires to seize Greenland. Over the weekend, President Trump reiterated his determination to seize the island, whether peacefully or by force. Now, several Danish and European officials have expressed concerns over the implications of the US taking hostile action against an allied NATO state (and thus breaking the mutual defense clause). 
    • European officials are attempting to calm the situation by keeping a low profile and hoping President Trump will soon be distracted by a different issue. At the same time, representatives from several European nations have begun negotiating with Greenland on security guarantees in exchange for raw materials extraction and energy, should their initial strategy fail.
  • A plane carrying the first group of Colombian deportees departed the US on Tuesday after a near-economic crisis over the weekend. President Trump demanded Colombia’s support in deporting its nationals from the US, and threatened tariffs if they do not cooperate. Initially, Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro refused to facilitate the deportation of Colombian nationals. However, Trump repeated his threats to initiate sanctions and tariffs on Colombia, leading President Petro to acquiesce to his demands, averting a costly trade war for Colombia.
  • On January 27, the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels intensified their offensive toward Goma in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The rebels have reportedly seized key areas surrounding Goma, raising fears of an imminent takeover. This surge in violence has displaced over 100,000 civilians in recent weeks amid ongoing clashes between the Congolese military and the M23. Local resources are stretched thin, with soaring food prices and overcrowded displacement camps exacerbating the crisis. The United Nations has condemned both M23 and Congolese forces for the indiscriminate shelling, which has caused civilian casualties and heightened risks for vulnerable populations in displacement camps.
  • President Trump ordered a pause on the US Refugee Admissions Program, placing many Afghans who supported US forces throughout the past 20 years in peril. It is estimated that 40,000 Afghans are currently pursuing resettlement in the US due to fears of persecution by the Taliban. Since 2008, Afghans who aided US military or government personnel have been permitted to resettle in the United States under the Special Immigrant Visa program (SIV). While the executive order does not explicitly target SIV admissions, it does stop funding for various humanitarian organizations which facilitate resettlement, which has effectively halted SIV resettlement flights out of Afghanistan.

United States – Protests

  • “Cute winter boots” is a recent TikTok trend and resistance movement in support of protest action against U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and government policies, including those related to perceived censorship. The coded language avoids digital restrictions and moderation filters while spreading its message. Notably, some users are using “cute winter boots” to code for supporteing the use of firearms to defend ICE-targeted undocumented immigrants, and there has been violent rhetoric discovered on alternative media platforms.  Our team has seen references to Luigi Mangione’s “deny, defend, depose” and guns.  January 29 has been announced as a day of action, and those supporting the movement will be demonstrating at 2 pm throughout the U.S. cities like NYC and Boston.. Trump-associated properties will be targeted at protest points.  In addition, supporters are asked to delete or refrain from using Meta platforms and buying gas, food, or clothing, besides winter boots. Posts online have received nearly a million likes, and participation is expected to be high.  

Technology

  • On January 27, shares of major US tech companies, including Nvidia and Microsoft, saw sharp declines following the emergence of a China-based AI app called DeepSeek. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index declined by more than 3%, dragging down the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500. DeepSeek has rapidly climbed to the top of the Apple App Store charts, with initial tests suggesting it performs on par with US-based AI products, at a fraction of the cost. Its underlying technology, DeepSeek-V3, is reported to rely on far fewer specialized computer chips than its American counterparts, sparking concerns over the effectiveness of US export controls aimed at restricting advanced chip sales to China. 

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