| GLOBAL SECURITY MATTERS Middle East → Israel launched extensive airstrikes on Gaza early Tuesday, March 18, 2025, killing at least 326 Palestinians and injuring hundreds more, effectively ending the two-month ceasefire with Hamas. The strikes targeted multiple areas across Gaza, including Khan Younis, Rafah, Gaza City, and Deir el-Balah. Hamas accused Israel of unilaterally breaking the ceasefire that began on January 19, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the military action was a response to Hamas’s refusal to release additional hostages and extend the truce. The Israeli military confirmed it was conducting “extensive strikes on terror targets” linked to Hamas. Meanwhile, the White House Press Secretary reported that Israel had consulted with U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the operation. It remains to be seen where these new strikes will lead. While Qatar and Egypt are reportedly still pushing for a ceasefire, Israel’s hardline right party, Otzma Yehudit, announced it would rejoin Netanyahu’s governing coalition, in apparent approval of the PM’s decision to resume strikes on Hamas targets in Gaza. At the moment, it is clear that a ceasefire extension is substantially less likely than it was a week ago, though the key factor we are tracking here is the Trump administration’s strategic objectives. We have seen a wide range of foreign leaders tip-toe around Trump in the early weeks of his presidency, and Netanyahu, too, is far from eager to break with Trump at this stage. If Trump truly supports a return to war, then Netanyahu is unlikely to stop short of military objectives with U.S. pressure. Conversely, if Trump wants Netanyahu to redirect attention toward the ceasefire talks, we expect the Israeli PM will at least feign interest in a deal yet again. → Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced plans to dismiss Ronen Bar, the head of Israel’s internal security agency, Shin Bet, citing a loss of trust. This unprecedented move comes as the agency investigates two of Netanyahu’s advisers over allegations of receiving payments from Qatar during the Israel-Hamas war. Bar has pushed back, condemning Netanyahu’s demand for personal loyalty as contrary to public interest and Shin Bet’s operational principles. The decision has sparked concerns among Netanyahu’s political opponents, who fear he may appoint a loyalist, potentially politicizing the traditionally apolitical agency. The timing, amid ongoing investigations and wartime conditions, has ignited controversy and debate within Israel’s political and security circles. → On Saturday, The United States carried out extensive airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, resulting in significant casualties. The strikes hit multiple locations, including the capital Sanaa and the provinces of Saada, Al-Bayda, Hajjah, and Dhamar. The U.S. has defended the operation as a necessary response to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping. In response to the U.S. airstrikes, the Houthis launched a missile and drone attack on U.S. Navy ships in the Red Sea. A U.S. official stated that the Houthis fired 11 drones and one ballistic missile, with U.S. Air Force and Navy aircraft intercepting the drones, while the missile fell far short of its target. → On Monday, Lebanese and Syrian officials agreed to a ceasefire following clashes along the Lebanon-Syria border that erupted after the deaths of three Syrian soldiers. This escalation follows recent conflict between the Syrian military and Lebanese Shia groups aligned with Syria’s ousted Assad government. Lebanon is seeking international support to strengthen its military presence along its borders with Syria and Israel. Both the Lebanese and Syrian armies are in communication to de-escalate tensions, with Lebanese forces deploying in large numbers as families evacuate the area. Syria’s interim government has accused Hezbollah militants of kidnapping and killing their soldiers, though Hezbollah denies the allegations. → Last Thursday, U.S. and Iraqi forces conducted a precision airstrike in Al Anbar Province, Iraq, eliminating Abdallah Makki Muslih al-Rifai, also known as “Abu Khadijah,” the Deputy Caliph and Chief of Global Operations for ISIS. Abu Khadijah played a key role in managing ISIS’s logistics, operations, and finances worldwide. The operation also killed another ISIS operative. Both of those killed were wearing unexploded suicide vests at the time of the strike, according to US Central Command. |
| International Affairs → On Saturday, more than 100,000 demonstrators gathered in Belgrade for the largest anti-government protest in Serbia’s recent history. The rally was sparked by the November collapse of a railway station that killed 15 people, an incident protesters blame on government corruption and negligence. On Sunday, Serbian officials denied allegations that security forces used a military-grade sonic weapon to disperse the crowd. However, opposition leaders and human rights groups claim the device was deployed, triggering panic and a brief stampede. As of Wednesday morning, Prime Minister Milos Vucevic has resigned and President Aleksandar Vucic announced he may call for early elections as soon as June. → Early Saturday morning, a fire ignited at the ‘Pulse’ nightclub in Kochani, North Macedonia, resulting in at least 59 deaths and over 100 injuries. The incident occurred around 2:35 AM during a performance by a local band, reportedly sparked by pyrotechnics igniting the ceiling. The nightclub owner has been arrested, and one suspect is in custody. As families gather at hospitals and municipal offices seeking information, officials, including Interior Minister Panche Toshkovski and Justice Minister Igor Filkov, have addressed the public, vowing accountability. The incident has drawn international attention, with European leaders and the U.S. Ambassador to North Macedonia expressing condolences. → British Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemned Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response to a U.S.-proposed ceasefire in Ukraine as “insufficient.” Speaking after a virtual summit with Ukraine’s allies, Starmer accused Putin of stalling the ceasefire proposal that Ukraine had already accepted earlier in the week. He stressed that Ukraine remains the “party of peace” and urged Putin to end his attacks and commit to a ceasefire. Starmer also reaffirmed the coalition’s dedication to sustaining military aid for Ukraine and intensifying economic sanctions against Russia. The summit, attended by representatives from approximately 25 nations, sought to bolster support for Kyiv and increase pressure on Moscow, with Starmer expressing confidence that Putin will eventually be forced into meaningful negotiations. → Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a temporary ceasefire specifically related to Ukraine’s energy facilities on Tuesday. However, he remains opposed to a full 30-day ceasefire. Ukraine, however, has already agreed to the preliminary framework for a 30-day ceasefire. White House officials reported that additional negotiations are set to take place in Saudi Arabia in the coming days, though it is unclear whether Ukraine will be in attendance. |
Resources:
- US Department of State Travel Advisories
- CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters.
- Check out our webinar about Misinformation and the Threat it poses to Democracies on our YouTube channel.
- Our latest blog posts discusses the future of Ukrainian security.
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