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Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest - November 12, 2024

Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest – November 12, 2024

Interfor’s Weekly Digest | Global Security and Policy Insights – November 12, 2024 

Global Security Matters

United States 


  • President-Elect Trump has reportedly begun to reveal his Cabinet and White House staff picks. Among them are South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem as Secretary of Homeland Security; Congressman Lee Zeldin to lead the EPA; Congresswoman Elise Stefanik as Ambassador to the UN; and his campaign manager, Susie Wiles, as Chief of Staff. President-Elect Trump is also expected to tap Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Tom Homan, former ICE official and police officer as the ‘border czar’ tasked with curbing illegal immigration. There is speculation regarding several other positions, though formal announcements have not yet been made. Political observers around the world are anxious to decipher what his nominees signal about the new administration’s approach to Ukraine/Russia, Taiwan/China, NATO, Iran, and the war in the Middle East.

Israel  – Gaza – Iran – Hezbollah

  • Qatar has paused its mediation efforts in the ongoing Israel-Hamas negotiations, citing a lack of genuine commitment from both parties. Qatar’s decision was influenced by the observation that recent talks have devolved into political maneuvering rather than sincere attempts to resolve the conflict and address the hostage situation. Progress has been stalled since Hamas executed six Israeli hostages in late August, despite Qatar’s prior success in mediating a ceasefire last November, which included significant hostage exchanges. The Qatari Foreign Ministry announced that it notified both sides about the suspension ten days ago, stressing that mediation will resume only when both parties show a sincere commitment to end hostilities and alleviate civilian suffering.
    • Note that there are conflicting reports that Qatar told Hamas officials they were no longer welcome in Doha. The information leaked in American press outlets late last week, though Qatar denies the claim. As of now, no reports suggest that the group’s most senior leadership has left Qatar.
    • We assess that Qatar’s new posture is most likely meant as a “chess move” to either encourage both sides to return to the table, or to distance Qatar from Hamas ahead of Trump’s inauguration. Hamas’ leadership will be far more vulnerable to Israeli assassination attempts in any geography they choose to relocate to outside Qatar, and a more pro-Israel Trump administration, joined by a Republican Senate and (likely) House, may choose to further scrutinize Qatar’s relationship with Hamas, rather than seeing the Gulf monarchy as a productive partner and mediator.
  • It appears Israel will fail to sufficiently increase aid to Gaza by tomorrow’s deadline, the timing and conditions of which were set by the Biden administration in October. Last month, the White House had warned that such a failure may result in delays in US military aid shipments to Israel. Israel has taken some steps toward increasing aid into Gaza, opening a new corridor in central Gaza for trucks to cross. Newly appointed Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar has stated that he believes the US and Israel can “reach an understanding,” which is likely informed by Donald Trump’s electoral victory. It is still unclear how Biden will respond, given that he is now a lame duck president and President-Elect Trump would likely reverse any course of action that limits weapons shipments to Israel.

International Affairs

  • U.S. defense officials confirmed that American airstrikes targeted Houthi weapons storage facilities in Yemen on Saturday night. The strikes, carried out by US Central Command, focused on multiple sites containing advanced conventional weapons used by Iran-backed Houthi forces to threaten both military and civilian vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. This is the first US airstrike since the presidential election and follows the Houthis’ claim of downing an American drone late last week.
  • On Thursday, Israeli soccer fans were chased through the streets and beaten in Amsterdam following a soccer match. After exiting the stadium, Israeli fans were targeted by rioters, while others reports suggest that some were asked to show their passports and prove they were not Jewish. Initial reports suggest that the attack was premeditated, with participants coordinating on Telegram and WhatsApp channels. Other reports claim that Israeli fans tore down a Palestinian flag and taunted Palestine supporters in the Netherlands. Despite Amsterdam authorities’ decision to ban demonstrations for the weekend, several additional reports are circulating that claim that smaller anti-Israel and antisemitic incidents are still happening in Amsterdam.
  • On November 10, Ukrainian forces executed a major drone strike targeting Moscow in what is reportedly the largest strike on the Russian capitol since war broke out. The assault led to the temporary closure of two key airports, Sheremetyevo and Domodedovo, marking a significant escalation in the conflict. This attack is one of the largest drone offensives on the Russian capital since the war began. The assault caused widespread disruption, with flights diverted or canceled as a precautionary measure in response to the ongoing threat of further strikes.

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