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Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest - November 19, 2024

Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest – November 19, 2024

Interfor’s Weekly Digest | Global Security and Policy Insights – November 19, 2024 

Global Security Matters

United States

  • President-Elect Trump continues to reveal his Cabinet nominations. Of note, Senator Marco Rubio has been tapped for Secretary of State. In addition, Trump has nominated Matt Gaetz as Attorney General, Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence, Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, and Christ Wright, CEO of Liberty Energy, as Secretary of Energy. While Rubio has been widely seen as an up-the-middle pick for State, Gaetz, Gabbard, and Hegseth have drawn controversy due to a wide range of ethical concerns (and criminal allegations) and/or past conspiratorial beliefs. Of note, the House Ethics Committee is reportedly compiling a report on Matt Gaetz to disperse to Congress, and potentially the public, prior to the confirmation hearings. Gabbard has also been criticized for her ties to and relatively friendly views toward Russia and Syria. Several additional nominees have been announced, detailed here.

Israel  – Gaza – Iran – Hezbollah

  • Biden’s envoy to the Middle East, Amos Hochstein arrived in Beirut on Monday to attempt to finalize a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. The agreement would include a 60-day transition period in which the IDF would withdraw from Lebanon, the Lebanese army would take its place in the south, and Hezbollah would be required to retreat north of the Litani River. Lebanese negotiators are reportedly attempting to secure assurance from the US that, should they agree, further Israeli attacks will be prevented. However, Israel has reportedly requested a letter from the US guaranteeing its “freedom of action” after signing the deal, should Hezbollah attack Israel again. 
    • This is the closest Israel and Hezbollah have been to a ceasefire since Israel assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in late September. Netanyahu’s team is reportedly eager to deliver a Lebanon ceasefire, hoping it will be perceived as an“early foreign policy win” for President-Elect Trump.
  • On Sunday, Hezbollah’s media chief, Mohammed Afif, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in central Beirut. The strike targeted the Arab Socialist Baath Party offices in the Ras al-Naba area, causing extensive destruction.
  • Over the last week, there have been multiple reports that Hamas’s political leadership had relocated to Turkey, following a Qatari request for the group to leave Doha. Turkey has since denied these reports, implying that some Hamas leaders may have just been visiting the country. Still, these rumors do reflect that Hamas has an uncertain future, in particular if it has lost Qatar’s blessing to indefinitely reside in Doha. US officials have spoken out against Turkey hosting Hamas, noting that Turkey, as a NATO ally, should not harbor US designated terror organizations.
    • A potential Hamas residency in Turkey has complex implications. First of all, Israel may see it as practically easier to assassinate Hamas leaders in Turkey vs. Qatar. Even if Turkey’s NATO membership could be viewed as a diplomatic complication, that likely will not stop Israel from enacting deniable plans against Hamas in Turkey, particularly given Israel’s already frayed relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (compared to Israel’s rapidly improving ties with the UAE and KSA). 
    • Erdoğan may try to leverage his role as Hamas’ host to grow his global profile and influence, likely by loudly antagonizing Israel. It is unclear what role Erdoğan will play in ceasefire talks if Hamas’ political wing is operating from Turkey, but Israel would not view Turkey as a trustworthy mediator.
    • Still, all of this could still be a mostly symbolic move from Qatar, wanting to demonstrate a willingness to punish Hamas ahead of Donald Trump coming to office. The geographic base of Hamas’ political wing could remain unclear for weeks or months while Qatar continues to play a behind-the-scenes role in ceasefire negotiations in the meantime.

International Affairs

  • On Tuesday, Hong Kong held a mass sentencing for activists initially charged in 2021 for conspiracy to commit subversion after organizing an “unofficial primary election” in 2020 and violating electoral and national security laws in Hong Kong. These arrests come after Hong Kong saw mass protests in 2019 which disrupted daily life and lasted several weeks, leading many analysts to suspect the sentencing to be politically motivated. Hundreds of protesters attended the event, which saw the activists sentenced to terms ranging from three years to lifetime sentences. 
  • Canadian security officials foiled an Iranian assassination plot targeting former Justice Minister Irwin Cotler. Cotler is a Jewish former legal representative of Iranian dissidents and political prisoners. The plot by Iran follows suspected plots targeting President-Elect Trump’s life and a documented history of political assassinations by Tehran.
  • The past week has seen escalations between Russia and Ukraine. Late last week, President Biden approved Ukraine’s use of US-supplied long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike targets within Russian territory. Then, on Sunday, Russia launched one of its largest missile and drone assaults on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since late August, targeting major cities. In response, the Kremlin revised its military doctrine this week to lower the threshold to justify a nuclear attack. The change sends a strong signal to Ukraine and its allies that Russia may be willing to escalate to levels not seen in decades. However, it remains to be seen whether or not Putin and his allies are truly committed to the nuclear option or calling Biden’s bluff. Altogether this represents potential for escalation ahead of Trump’s inauguration, which many believe will come with US pressure for a negotiated solution.
  • Two undersea cables connecting Germany and Finland were severed in the Baltic Sea this weekend. The German and Finnish Defense Ministers have signaled that Russia may have been behind the incident. In response, several NATO states appear to be preparing for further Russian aggression. In Sweden, citizens received pamphlets with instructions on how to cope with war, and Finland released online guidelines for crises. 

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