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Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest - October 29th, 2024

Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest – October 29th, 2024

Interfor’s Weekly Digest | Global Security and Policy Insights – October 29th, 2024 

Global Security Matters

Israel  – Gaza – Iran – Hezbollah

  • On Saturday morning, Israel launched a retaliatory strike against Iran, comprising several waves of aerial attacks against military targets in Iran, damaging Iran’s military infrastructure, air defense systems, and ballistic missile manufacturing capabilities. This strike has reportedly limited Iran’s defensive capabilities in the event of another offensive and demonstrated Israel’s air superiority in the region (critically, it seems that at least some Israeli aircraft entered Iranian airspace without issue). The US has warned Iran against further attacks on Israel, though Iranian officials have claimed they retain the right to respond to the attack.
    • Early indications are that this round of Israel-Iran confrontation could be over. Israel managed to successfully target critical pieces of Iranian defense infrastructure and demonstrated an ability to operate deep in Iranian airspace. Iranian defense officials likely see the Israeli attack as highly significant and theoretically worthy of response. However, because the attack did not target more visible representations of the regime’s power – principally the nuclear program or energy infrastructure – Iran’s political leadership is able to publicly portray the strike as insignificant. 
  • This political narrative masks the strategic reality that Iran is vulnerable  – with various air defenses destroyed and its ballistic missile program hurt – and likely deterred from further direct action against Israel.
  • On Monday, CIA Director Bill Burns introduced a new short-term ceasefire proposal. The deal would see a 28-day cessation of hostilities in Gaza, the release of about 8 hostages and dozens of Palestinian prisoners. This proposal follows reports that the US planned to invest heavily in new efforts to broker an end to the conflict, following the death of Yahya Sinwar.
    • While this is the first time in two months that a deal has been seriously considered, the plan still leaves out key Hamas demands(notably, a full Israeli withdrawal) and may prove to be unacceptable terms for Israel with only 8 of 101 hostages released. US officials hoped that Yahya Sinwar’s death would open the door for productive ceasefire negotiations, though it remains to be seen whether Hamas’ new leaders will be more amenable negotiating partners and whether Israel is willing to compromise amid a string of military victories.
  • At least thirty two people were wounded in a truck-ramming attack at a bus stop in Israel. The attack is suspected to be terror-related. The driver was neutralized at the scene by bystanders. Those injured were primarily retirees traveling to visit a museum.

International Affairs

  • North Korea sent approximately 10,000 troops to train and fight alongside the Russian military against Ukraine. Russia’s Foreign Minister stopped short of confirming that North Korean troops are inside Russia, though Ukrainian President Zelenskyy claimed that they would be “on the battlefield within days.” The Pentagon, in response, said it would continue to support Ukraine with US-made weapons, despite growing concerns among NATO members that North Korea’s involvement could increase the risk of expanding the geopolitical and security implications of the conflict.
  • Georgia’s President Salome Zourabichvili said she would not recognize the results of last weekend’s parliamentary vote, claiming that the election was “victim to a Russian special operation.” She claimed that the elections were influenced by Russia and that the ruling party, Georgian Dream, were attempting to drive the country away from the EU. The European Council called for an investigation into electoral integrity, while others, including Hungarian PM Victor Orban, congratulated Georgian Dream on their victory. Tens of thousands of Georgians have since began protesting for an electoral investigation.
  • In Japan’s snap election on Monday, no party was left with a majority, leaving the government in a rare moment of instability. After the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) became embroiled in scandal last year, they receivedonly 215 seats this election (from 279). Without a majority party, a vote for premiership will be held on November 11 and some officials are questioning whether PM Ishiba can hold the seat in a special election. To stay in power, LDP will need to form a coalition, in contrast to their usually stable position in Japanese politics.
  • On Wednesday, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held their first formal meeting since 2019. Last week, the two leaders announced that they had agreed on a new arrangement for managing military patrols along their shared border. Statements from both leaders indicate that their relationship could be warming. Both countries have more pressing defense priorities (e.g. Taiwan and Pakistan, respectively) and would benefit from increased economic cooperation. 

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