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What Would Post-Election Violence Look Like?
As the U.S. Presidential Elections draw near, anxiety and tensions are escalating. The previous elections left two powerful impressions: Donald Trump’s refusal to accept the results and the January 6 Capitol Riots that ensued.
No one wants a repeat of that.
Contingency Plans
Donald Trump’s supporters from the “Stop the Steal” camp have been actively campaigning online against Kamala Harris, claiming that she can only win if the vote is manipulated. They have prepared contingency plans to challenge election results in court, pressure lawmakers, and mobilize protests.
Government agencies are increasingly concerned about potential post-election violence. In October, the FBI and Department of Homeland Security issued an intelligence bulletin addressing this risk. While the bulletin emphasizes the threat posed by domestic violent extremists (DMVs), often associated with Trump supporters, it also references two assassination attempts on Trump, underscoring that violent extremism is not confined to one side.
Most experts believe another attack on the Capitol is unlikely, especially given the heightened security measures in place. However, they anticipate that violent incidents may be scattered across the country. In September, the Department of Homeland Security issued a memo warning that threats are more likely to come from lone actors rather than organized groups.
Voters share these concerns, according to a recent survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Many are approaching this election with “deep unease” about the potential for violence following the election results.
Government and Civilian Security Measures
As tensions mount ahead of election day, government agencies and civil society groups are taking precautions and strengthening security measures.
- The Secret Service has implemented enhanced security measures at the Capitol, and Capitol Police have been conducting a range of security drills to prepare for different emergency scenarios.
- In Maricopa County, Florida- considered “ground zero” for election fraud conspiracies -officials are reinforcing defenses against physical attacks, adding security fences, concrete barriers, metal detectors, and rigorous security checks. In suburban Denver, a county clerk has started wearing body armor after being followed home after a local election. His office is stocked with Narcan in case of a fentanyl attack, as even small amounts can be deadly, and now includes bulletproof glass, security cameras, and panic buttons. Although not every voting site nationwide requires such extensive measures, law enforcement agencies across the country have been stepping up security efforts. And it is a shame that such measures would be needed anywhere.
- Jen Easterly, director of CISA, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency of the Department of Homeland Security, has been traveling nationwide to provide r security guidance and training to election officials from both parties. While CISA also monitors disinformation from international sources, it has faced criticism for not playing a more assertive role in countering domestic disinformation.
- Civil society groups are actively working to help maintain public peace. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, for instance, has been holding information sessions to prepare for post-election violence – a first, according to senior fellow Rachel Kleinfeld. Meanwhile, Common Defense, a grassroots organization of 40,000 veteran members, has been training its members in de-escalation techniques and has an unarmed network across the country on standby for emergency security situations.
- Legally, In 2022, the vote-certification process was reformed, making it significantly more challenging for anyone to contest election results.
Ready, Set, Protect
The nation may be divided in its opinions, but it is united in its tensions. As elections draw near, both parties not only fear the possibility of defeat but also the potential consequences that may arise from such a loss. On a positive note, law enforcement agencies have had ample time to prepare for crisis situations, and it is hoped that their readiness, along with enhanced security measures, will be sufficient to deter any individuals who might resort to violence.